Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises
AbstractThis paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/42.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2005
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Other versions of this item:
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-10-22 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-10-22 (Financial Markets)
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