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"Rules of Thumb" for Sovereign Debt Crises

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Author Info
Paolo Manasse
Nouriel Roubini

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Abstract

This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/42.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 11 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/42

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Related research
Keywords: External Debt ; Financial crisis ; Debt restructuring ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Witold J. Henisz, 2002. "The institutional environment for infrastructure investment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 355-389.
  5. Nadeem Ul Haque & Donald J. Mathieson & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 98/46, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Luis Catão & Bennett Sutton, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Isabel Schnabel & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2005. "Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," Documentos de Trabajo 280, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carlo Cottarelli & Curzio Giannini, 2002. "Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending," IMF Working Papers 02/193, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Paolo Manasse & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Debt Maturity and the Global Financial Architecture," CEPR Discussion Papers 2520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  16. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Lee, Suk Hun, 1993. "Are the credit ratings assigned by bankers based on the willingness of LDC borrowers to repay?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 349-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Sovereign Debt: Indexation and Maturity," RES Working Papers 4459, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonathan David Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 05/206, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Mauro, 2005. "Pricing Growth-Indexed Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/216, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti & Christian Vonbun, 2007. "Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007," Discussion Papers 1315, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. André Faria & Martín Minnoni & Aleksandar Zaklan & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "The External Financing of Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization," IMF Working Papers 06/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roberto S. Mariano & Delano Villanueva, 2005. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Growth," Working Papers 13-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
  9. Julian di Giovanni & E. H. Gardner, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 08/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andrea M. Maechler & Bas Berend Bakker & Christoph Duenwald & Piritta Sorsa & Andrew Tiffin, 2007. "Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe--How Much Cause for Concern?," IMF Working Papers 07/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2009. "Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction," RES Working Papers 4610, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Paul Cashin & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/93, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Paloma Acevedo & Enrique Alberola & Carmen Broto, 2007. "Local debt expansion… vulnerability reduction? An assessment for six crises-prone countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0733, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  15. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2009. "The Value of Institutions for Financial Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Deuda soberana: indexación y vencimiento," RES Working Papers 4460, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Caroline Rijckeghem & Beatrice Weder, 2009. "Political institutions and debt crises," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 387-408, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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