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Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes

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Author Info
Ashoka Mody
Eisuke Okada
Enrica Detragiache

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Abstract

A widely held nostrum is that countries should exit heavily managed exchange rate regimes when the going is good, rather than when the exchange rate is under pressure to depreciate. Have countries followed this advice in practice? And, if so, how good has the going been? We find that in the past 25 years or so, almost all exits to more flexible regimes were followed by a depreciation of the exchange rate, and that exits were about evenly divided between disorderly and orderly cases. A logit econometric model, indicates that the general circumstances of orderly and disorderly exits have been broadly similar: an overvalued real exchange rate, falling reserves, a difficult fiscal position, and high world interest rates. Wellestablished pegs were less likely to end.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/39.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 07 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/39

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate regimes ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ahmet Asici & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 211–228. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. PIERRE-RICHARD AGÉNOR, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Inci Ötker & Rupa Duttagupta, 2003. "Exits From Pegged Regimes: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 03/147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dalia Hakura, 2005. "Are Emerging Market Countries Learning to Float?," IMF Working Papers 05/98, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes -- A Trap?," NBER Working Papers 11652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Asici, Ahmet Atil & Ivanova, Nadezhda & Wyplosz, Charles, 2005. "How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Post, Erik, 2007. "Macroeconomic imbalances and exchange rate regime shifts," Working Paper Series 2007:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp96, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
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