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Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia

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  • Antonio Spilimbergo

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of fiscal policy in Russia since the 1998 crisis along several dimensions, using a variety of indicators. Russia has progressed tremendously in recent years on public debt sustainability, largely thanks to the fact that the real interest rates on public debt have been negative and growth has been high. However, the constant oil-price balance shows a progressive worsening starting in 2001, with a modest reversal in 2004. The analysis of the non-oil fiscal balance shows that Russian fiscal policy has had a mixed record. Part of the windfalls were spent before the introduction of the oil stabilization fund, but most of the oil revenues have been saved during the last two year. This poses an important challenge for future years when the automatic saving mechanism provided by the oil stabilization fund will be weakened by the approved increase in the reference oil price. The standard fiscal impulse shows that budget policy has not contributed to the increase in aggregate demand since 2003. However, the fiscal position was not tight enough to contain the inflationary effects of the exceptional oil windfalls on the economy as a whole.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/241.

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Length: 19
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/241

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Keywords: Fiscal management; Oil revenues; fiscal policy; expenditure; fiscal stance; fiscal balance; taxation; aggregate demand; fiscal impulse; public expenditure; public debt; fiscal authorities; fiscal position; fiscal shocks; fiscal response; fiscal revenues; fiscal variables; budget balance; fiscal accounts; primary deficit; fiscal performance; fiscal sustainability; fiscal deficit; tax system; public spending; expenditure categories; fiscal impulses; fiscal policy formulation; fiscal multiplier; tax collection; fiscal equilibrium; fiscal issues; fiscal stances; fiscal account; tax administration; restrictive fiscal policy; fiscal crisis; tax revenues; fiscal tightening; fiscal savings; fiscal impact; public finance; fiscal budget; fiscal indicators; expenditure responsibilities; primary fiscal balance; long-term fiscal sustainability; fiscal revenue; budget revenues;

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  1. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
  2. H. Takizawa & E. H. Gardner & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better off Spending their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 04/141, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Hong Liang & C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1999. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 99/80, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Irina N. Ilina & Carol S. Leonard & Evgenij E. Plisetskij, 2014. "Russian Regional Resilience: Finance, Cooperation And Resource Abundance (A Case Study Of Khanty-Mansiysk)," HSE Working papers, National Research University Higher School of Economics WP BRP 15/PA/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  3. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.

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