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Revenue Forecasting

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Author Info

  • Annette Kyobe
  • Stephan Danninger

Abstract

This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/24.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/24

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Related research

Keywords: Revenues; Budget estimates; Economic forecasting; forecasting; budget document; budget preparation; budget management; budget coverage; budget preparation process; extrabudgetary funds; independent variables; linear regression; government agencies; extra budgetary funds; independent variable; statistics; regression analysis; standard deviations; budget forecasting; revenue forecasting; revenue forecast; survey; budget planning; budget submission; correlation; budget process; budget envelope; multivariate analysis; budget practices; extrapolations; statistically significant effect; significance level; annual budget process; efficient budget planning; functional form; extrapolation; budget negotiations; budget discussions; allocation of expenditures; budget circular; sample mean; budget institutions; budgetary funds; budget preparation processes; surveys; government expenditure; dummy variables;

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References

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  1. Ian Lienert & Feridoun Sarraf, 2001. "Systemic Weaknesses of Budget Management in anglophone Africa," IMF Working Papers 01/211, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Stephan Danninger & Annette Kyobe & M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/2, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Mikhail Golosov & J. R. King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerencia de Riesgo Asobancaria - CIFIN, . "EstimaciĆ³n de la Carga Financiera en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 056, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. T. P. Koirala Ph.D., 2012. "Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 47-60, October.
  3. Stephan Danninger & Annette Kyobe & M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/2, International Monetary Fund.

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