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Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies: How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?

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Author Info
Ken Miyajima
Abstract

This paper emphasizes the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) developments in the nontradables sector to quantitatively demonstrate that the time-honored Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis does not generally apply to episodes of economic growth. Though the Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis postulates that strong economic growth should, in general, be accompanied by a real appreciation in exchange rates, this paper does not find such systematic links. This is because some growth spurts are marked by equal TFP gains in both the tradables and nontradables sectors, and others by larger TFP gains in the nontradables sector.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/233.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 22 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/233

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Keywords: Real effective exchange rates Economic growth Productivity Accounting

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Krueger, Thomas H, 1994. "The Behavior of Nontradable-Goods Prices in Europe: Evidence and Interpretation," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 284-305, October.
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  2. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jens Høj & Michael Wise, 2004. "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in Norway," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 389, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 261, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  11. Mulligan, C. B. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1997. "A labor income-based measure of the value of human capital: An application to the states of the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 159-191, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harberger, Arnold C, 1989. "Applications of Real Exchange Rate Analysis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, April.
  16. Man-Keung Tang & Jaewoo Lee, 2003. "Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 03/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Razzak, Weshah, 2005. "Explaining the gaps in labour productivity in some developed countries," MPRA Paper 1888, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Iain Bain, 2007. "China'S Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," CAMA Working Papers 2007-14, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2007. "China’s Real Exchange Rate," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2007-479, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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