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Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods

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Author Info
Philippe D Karam
Doug Hostland

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Abstract

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/226.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 20 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/226

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Keywords: Debt ; Emerging markets ; Risk premium ; Fiscal policy ; Fiscal management ; Capital flows ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2003. "Explaining Sudden Stops, Growth Collapse and BOP Crises: The Case of Distortionary Output Taxes," NBER Working Papers 9864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Patrick Georges & Nicolas Moreau, . "Enrichments to Multi-Year Fiscal Commitments in the Presence of Uncertainty," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2002-11, Department of Finance Canada. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yýlmaz Akyüz, . "Global Rules and Markets: Constraints over Policy Autonomy in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2007/5, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
  2. Charles Wyplosz, 2005. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives," HEI Working Papers 03-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 30 Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Julian di Giovanni & E. H. Gardner, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 08/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/268, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paloma Acevedo & Enrique Alberola & Carmen Broto, 2007. "Local debt expansion… vulnerability reduction? An assessment for six crises-prone countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0733, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philippe D Karam & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation," IMF Working Papers 08/64, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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