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The Role of Domestic and Foreign Investors in a Simple Model of Speculative Attacks

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Author Info
Dennis P. J. Botman
Cees G. H. Diks

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Abstract

We introduce local and foreign investors in a simple model of speculative attacks. Local investors have less tolerance for overvaluation of the fixed exchange rate because they tend to incur lower costs when taking a short position and possess better information, and because of moral hazard created by discriminatory government guarantees. On the other hand, the prospect of higher taxation after a balance of payments crisis deters speculation by locals compared to foreign investors. Finally, the lower the degree of exchange rate pass-through, the more likely domestic investors are tp take the lead during capital flight.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/205.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/205

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  2. Eaton, Jonathan, 1987. "Public Debt Guarantees and Private Capital Flight," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 377-95, May.
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  3. Kaufmann, Daniel & Mehrez, Gil & Schmukler, Sergio, 1999. "Predicting currency fluctuations and crises - do resident firms have an informational advantage?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2259, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  6. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
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  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1997. "Rational herd behavior and the globalization of securities markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 120, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Botman, Dennis P. J. & Jager, Henk, 2002. "Coordination of speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 159-175, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks," NBER Working Papers 7554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 2000. "International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information," NBER Working Papers 7902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 8303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Benabou, Roland & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 921-58, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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