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The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience from Low-Income Countries

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Author Info
Annette Kyobe
M. Cangiano
Stephan Danninger

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Abstract

This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/2.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/2

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Related research
Keywords: Political economy ; Revenues ; Low income developing countries ; Corruption ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting models ;

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  1. Pranab Bardhan, 1997. "Corruption and Development: A Review of Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1320-1346, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brian A. Jacob & Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "Rotten Apples: An Investigation of the Prevalence and Predictors of Teacher Cheating," NBER Working Papers 9413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Fjeldstad, Odd-Helge & Tungodden, Bertil, 2003. "Fiscal Corruption: A Vice or a Virtue?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1459-1467, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:808-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/14, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "The causes of corruption: a cross-national study," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 399-457, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alan Auerbach, 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series 1000, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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