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Is Russia Still Driving Regional Economic Growth?

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  • Marco Pani
  • Etibar Jafarov
  • Clinton R. Shiells
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates whether the linkages between economic growth in Russia and growth in other countries in the region have weakened over time, particularly following the 1998 Russian crisis. It specifies an econometric model that includes standard growth determinants as well as Russian economic growth, and which allows for the effects of Russian growth to vary over time. The paper finds that Russian growth was indeed a significant determinant of regional economic growth prior to the Russian crisis, but that this link weakened significantly thereafter.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/192.

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    Length: 42
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/192

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic growth; Baltics; Trade; Production; real gdp; gdp growth; correlation; growth rates; gdp growth rates; independent variables; statistics; equation; statistic; business cycles; dummy variables; growth rate; correlations; dummy variable; regression equation; regional economic growth; sensitivity analysis; standard errors; time series; instrumental variables; economic growth performances; logarithm; number of parameters; growth accounting; statistical tests; business cycle; economic growth rate; cointegration; transmission of business cycles; regression analysis; samples; nonlinearity; survey; fixed effects model; gross domestic product; econometrics; estimation procedure; per capita income; coefficient vector; equations; estimation method; properties of business cycles; estimation of equation; functional form;

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    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    2. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What we Know, What we Don't and What we Should," CEPR Discussion Papers 3246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Elena Loukoianova & Anna Unigovskaya, 2004. "Analysis of Recent Growth in Low-Income Cis Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/151, International Monetary Fund.
    4. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
    8. Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/58, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November.
    10. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "From transition to market: Evidence and growth prospects," MPRA Paper 20615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Michalopoulos, Constantine, 1999. "The integration of transition economies into the world trading system," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2182, The World Bank.
    12. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
    13. Oleh Havrylyshyn, 2001. "Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 4.
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    Cited by:
    1. Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/170, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kingsley I. Obiora, 2010. "Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 143-160.

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