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How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?

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Author Info
M. Ayhan Kose
Eswar Prasad
Marco Terrones

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Abstract

The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. Using a comprehensive new data set, we document that, while the basic negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other controls, the estimated coefficient on the interaction between volatility and trade integration is significantly positive. We find a similar, although less significant, result for the interaction of financial integration with volatility.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/19.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/19

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Keywords: Globalization International trade International financial system International capital markets Economic growth

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Full references

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  1. Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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