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Post-Transition Investment Behavior in Poland

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  • Zuzana Murgasova
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    Abstract

    Analyzing and projecting the behavior of macroeconomic variables in new EU member states presents special challenges, owing to limited time series of the available data. This paper presents an analysis of investment in Poland based on an underexplored sectoral data set. The determinants of investment are found to include lagged investment, lead production, relative unit labor costs, EU demand, corporate profitability, and greenfield FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows. Dynamic in-sample simulations indicate some overinvestment in 1997 compared with what the model would suggest, and a substantial underinvestment during 2000-2004. The model is then used to project future investment: while rapid investment growth is likely, it remains uncertain whether investment as a share of GDP will reach its peak levels on the late 1990s.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/184.

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    Length: 31
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/184

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    Related research

    Keywords: Data analysis; investment growth; equations; cost of capital; investment by sector; public investment; dummy variable; equation; statistics; time series; investment activity; private investment; dummy variables; risk assessment; direct investment; foreign direct investment; investment behavior; investment decisions; domestic investment; investment plans; survey; fixed capital; logarithms; logarithm; foreign investors; cointegration; investor confidence; empirical model; significance levels; business investment; standard deviation; forecasting; investment flows; estimation method; investors; investment projects;

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    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    2. Rumen Dobrinsky, 2005. "Domestic Savings and the Driving Forces of Investment in the ECE Emerging Market Economies," ECE Discussion Papers Series, UNECE 2005_2, UNECE.
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    Cited by:
    1. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Republic of Poland - Competition and Performance in the Polish Second Pillar," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16052, The World Bank.
    2. Bellak, Christian & Leibrecht, Markus & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2008. "Labour costs and FDI flows into Central and Eastern European Countries: A survey of the literature and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 17-37, March.

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