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Growth Empirics under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?

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Author Info
Charalambos G. Tsangarides

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Abstract

This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/18.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 03 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/18

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Keywords: Economic growth ; Africa ; Economic models ;

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2008. "On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression," MPRA Paper 6772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2008. "Determinants of economic growth - will data tell?," Working Paper Series 852, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4063, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2007. "Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," Working Papers wp2007_0719, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 2009. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression

    This article was published online on 30 M," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 651-674. [Downloadable!]

  6. Bigsten, Arne, 2006. "Aid and Economic Development in Africa," Working Papers in Economics 237, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chris Papageorgiou & Winford H. Masanjala, . "Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
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