Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance

Contents:

Author Info

  • Francis Y. Kumah
  • John Matovu
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18461
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/171.

    as in new window
    Length: 35
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/171

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Tax systems; expenditure; fiscal policy; fiscal performance; expenditures; fiscal aggregates; tax revenues; expenditure decisions; tax policy; fiscal regimes; fiscal surplus; expenditure policy; government spending; fiscal balance; fiscal deficit; fiscal stance; tax administration; fiscal surpluses; fiscal regime; discretionary fiscal policy; tax base; fiscal targets; fiscal adjustment; fiscal variables; fiscal revenues; fiscal shocks; fiscal balances; tax increases; fiscal deficits; expenditure reform; cyclical fiscal policy; medium-term fiscal projections; increase in expenditures; fiscal positions; budget deficit; fiscal outcomes; fiscal strategy; public finances; fiscal prudence; expenditure restraint; expenditure ratios; expenditure patterns; expenditure paths; expenditure management; fiscal policy management; expenditure policies; budget deficits; tax revenue; tax multiplier; expenditure increases; fiscal projections; government expenditures; public external debt; tax collections; expenditure ceiling; tax effort; expenditure target; tax cuts; fiscal tightening; fiscal adjustment process; expenditure commitments; tax performance;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
    4. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
    5. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0362, European Central Bank.
    7. Kumah, F.Y., 1996. "Common Stochastic Trends in the Current Account," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1996-84, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
    10. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.