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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis

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Author Info
Etienne B. Yehoue
Gilles J. Dufrénot

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Abstract

We combine some newly developed panel co-integration techniques and common factor analysis to analyze the behavior of the real exchange rate (RER) in a sample of 64 developing countries. We study the dynamic of the RER with its economic fundamentals: productivity, the terms of trade, openness, and government spending. We derive a number of common factors that explain the dynamic of the RER in our sample. We find that while some fundamentals such as productivity, terms of trade, and openness are strongly related to these common factors in low-income countries, no such link is found for the middle-income countries. We also derive the misalignment indices, which seem to reproduce recent episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation in a number of countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/164.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 25 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/164

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kaddour Hadri & Rolf Larsson, 2005. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data where the time dimension is finite," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "An empirical macroeconomic model for policy design : the case of Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 709, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. César A. Calderón, 2002. "Real Exchange Rates in the Long and Short Run: A Panel Co-Integration Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 153, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Corbo, Vittorio, 1989. "How does uncertainty about the real exchange rate affect exports?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 221, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Quah, Danny, 1994. "Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 9-19. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 06/140, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Working Papers 0811, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  4. Omar AlShehabi & Shuang Ding, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 08/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Raimundo Soto, 2008. "Unemployment and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Latin American Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 337, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  6. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim A. Elbadawi., 2007. "Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 324, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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