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Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies

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Author Info
Inci Ötker
Gudrun Johnsen
Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

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Abstract

This paper reviews trends in bank lending to the private sector, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern European countries, and finds that rapid growth of private sector credit continues to be a key challenge for most of these countries. The paper discusses possible implications for economic and financial stability and the policy options available to counter and reduce these risks. It argues that the authorities will need to focus on the implications for both the macro economy and the financial system and, depending on their assessment, may need a comprehensive policy response comprising a mix of macro and prudential policies. In particular where there are limitations to the effective use of monetary and fiscal measures, supervisory and prudential policy responses will have a key role in addressing financial stability concerns.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/151.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: 10 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/151

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Keywords: Credit expansion ; Europe ; Financial stability ; Economic policy ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Real estate indicators and financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 21, 11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Inci Ötker & R. B. Johnston, 1999. "A Modernized Approach to Managing the Risks in Cross-Border Capital Movements," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/6, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Inci Ötker & Akira Ariyoshi & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Andrei Kirilenko & Bernard Laurens, 2000. "Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. William E. Alexander & Charles Enoch & Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1995. "The Adoption of Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy," IMF Occasional Papers 126, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Charles Enoch & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Russell C. Krueger & Marina Moretti & Armida S. San Jose & Graham L. Slack & Vasudevan Sundararajan, 2002. "Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices," IMF Occasional Papers 212, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Giovanni Favarra, 2003. "An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth," IMF Working Papers 03/123, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Fuerst, Timothy S, 1995. "Monetary and Financial Interactions in the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1321-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Private-Sector Financial Liabilities in Advanced Economies: Is More Better?," IMF Working Papers 07/118, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Inci Ötker & Zbigniew Polanski & Barry Topf & David Vávra, 2007. "Coping with Capital Inflows: Experiences of Selected European Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/190, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Krishna Chaitanya, & Artur Tamazian, 2008. "Does Growth & Quality of Capital Markets drive Foreign Capital? The case of Cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions from leading Emerging Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp911, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe - new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Zsofia Arvai & Karl Driessen & Inci Otker-Robe, 2009. "Regional Financial Interlinkages and Financial Contagion Within Europe," IMF Working Papers 09/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices : What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 738, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2008. "Convergence in Emerging Europe: Sustainability and Vulnerabilities," IMF Working Papers 08/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrea M. Maechler & Srobona Mitra & DeLisle Worrell, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 07/248, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter Backé & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries: An Interpretation within the New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrea M. Maechler & Bas Berend Bakker & Christoph Duenwald & Piritta Sorsa & Andrew Tiffin, 2007. "Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe--How Much Cause for Concern?," IMF Working Papers 07/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Meral Karasulu, 2008. "StressTesting Household Debt in Korea," IMF Working Papers 08/255, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Nada Oulidi & Laurence Allain, 2009. "Credit Market in Morocco: A Disequilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 09/53, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Martin Vojtek & Evžen Kočenda, 2006. "Credit-Scoring Methods (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(3-4), pages 152-167, March. [Downloadable!]
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