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Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine

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Author Info
Nikolay Gueorguiev
Christoph Duenwald
Andrea Schaechter
Abstract

Rapid credit growth in Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine has been driven by successful macroeconomic stabilization, robust growth, and capital inflows. While financial deepening is both expected and welcome, the recent expansions appear to have been excessive, as evidenced by widening current account deficits in Bulgaria and Romania, and prudential concerns in Ukraine. Policy responses have included attempts to both moderate credit growth and offset its impact on domestic demand, with mixed success thus far.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/128.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/128

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Keywords: Transition economies ; Bulgaria ; Romania ; Ukraine ; Credit ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Maria del Mar Cacha & Armando Méndez Morales, 2003. "The Role of Supervisory Tools in Addressing Bank Borrowers' Currency Mismatches," IMF Working Papers 03/219, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Author-Name: Gernot J. Müller, 2004. "Current account dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 311, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Jean-Marc Figuet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp810, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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