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Deficit Limits, Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy

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Paolo Manasse

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Abstract

The paper presents a simple model for discussing the effects of deficit limits and budget rules on fiscal policy. I find that limits on deficit-output ratios provide incentives to implement procyclical policies when the economy is in intermediate states, and countercyclical policies only in very "good" and very "bad" economic times. As a result, fiscal "reaction functions" are not monotonically related to the state of the economy. Deficit limits are found to exert discipline only provided the limit is tight and the expected sanction large, albeit at a relatively large welfare cost. Moreover, when fiscal choices are made under a veil of ignorance about the output gap, an increase in volatility is likely to raise the level of the budget deficit. Finally, concerning the design of fiscal frameworks, when excessive deficits arise from a political bias, deficit limits should be symmetric and not state-contingent.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/120.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/120

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal management Budget deficits Economic growth Economic stabilization Economic policy Economic models

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Feldstein, Martin, 2005. "The euro and the stability pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 421-426, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bottazzi, Laura & Manasse, Paolo, 2005. "Asymmetric Information and Monetary Policy in Common Currency Areas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 603-21, August.
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  5. Manasse, Paolo, 1996. "Are taxes too low?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1263-1288. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Torsten Persson & Gerard Roland & Guido Tabellini, 2003. "How Do Electoral Rules Shape Party Structures, Government Coalitions, and Economic Policies?," NBER Working Papers 10176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Massimo Bordignon & Paolo Manasse & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Optimal Regional Redistribution under Asymmetric Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 709-723, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Candelon Bertrand & Muysken Joan & Vermeulen Robert, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe: An Update," Research Memoranda 050, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Xavier Debrun & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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