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Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan''s economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/105.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/105

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Saade CHAMI & Selim ELEKDAG & Todd SCHNEIDER & Nabil BEN LTAIFA, 2008. "Can A Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work In A Developing Country? The Case Of Yemen," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(1), pages 75-99.
  2. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 06/60, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Syed Ozair Ali, 2012. "Power, Profits and Inflation: A Study of Inflation and Influence in Pakistan," Working Papers id:4693, eSocialSciences.
  4. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
  5. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2008. "Political Instability and Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 13056, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jan 2009.
  6. Chrigui Zouhair & Boujelbene Younes, 2009. "The Opportunities for Adopting Inflation Targeting in Tunisia: a Cointegration Study and Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 671-692, October.
  7. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  9. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Saqib, Omar F & Omer, Muhamad, 2008. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," MPRA Paper 14883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Usman Abbasi, 2011. "Ramadan Effect on Price Movements: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers id:3937, eSocialSciences.
  12. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
  13. Nadia Saleem, 2008. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 99-128, Jul-Dec.
  14. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
  15. Mohsin S. Khan, 2009. "The Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy: Lessons for Pakistan (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 337-356.
  16. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.

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