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Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan

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Author Info
Madhavi Bokil
Axel Schimmelpfennig

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Abstract

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan's economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/105.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/105

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Keywords: Forecasting models ; Pakistan ; Inflation ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Akhtar Hossain, 1994. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function for Pakistan: An Application of the Method of Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 969-983. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    Other versions:
  3. Ahmad, Mushtaq & Khan, Ashfaque H., 1990. "A reexamination of the stability of the demand for money in pakistan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 307-321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," RES Working Papers 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  6. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Price, Simon & Nasim, Anjum, 1998. "Modelling inflation and the demand for money in Pakistan; cointegration and the causal structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov & Andrew K. Rose, 2006. "Quantitative goals for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 615, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Francisco Nadal-De Simone, 2000. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models," IMF Working Papers 00/162, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Arize, Augustine C, 1994. "A Re-examination of the Demand for Money in Small Developing Economies," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 217-28, March.
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Syed Muhammad Tariq & Kent Matthews, 1997. "The Demand for Simple-sum and Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 275-291. [Downloadable!]
  15. Abul F.M. Shamsuddin & Richard A. Holmes, 1997. "Cointegration test of the monetary theory of inflation and forecasting accuracy of the univariate and vector ARMA models of inflation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(5), pages 294-306, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Alina Carare & Andrea Schaechter & Mark R. Stone & Marc Zelmer, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 02/102, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  21. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 122-40, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 7618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2008. "Political Instability and Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 13056, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  2. Haider, Adnan & Khan, Safdar Ullah, 2007. "Does Volatility in Government Borrowing Leads to Higher Inflation? Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 17008, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Saqib, Omar F & Omer, Muhamad, 2008. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," MPRA Paper 14883, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202. [Downloadable!]
  6. Selim Elekdag & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Todd Schneider & Saade Chami, 2007. "Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen," IMF Working Papers 07/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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