Economic Performance over the Conflict Cycle
AbstractThe paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/95.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- O'Connell, Stephen A. & Soludo, Charles C., 2001. "Aid Intensity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1527-1552, September.
- Nisha Arunatilake & Sisira Kumara Jayasuriya & Saman Kelegama, 1999.
"The Economic Cost of the War in Sri Lanka,"
1999.10, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Malcolm D. Knight & Delano Villanueva & Norman Loayza, 1995.
"The Peace Dividend - Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
95/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
- Knight, Malcolm & Loayza, Norman & Villanueva, Delano, 1996. "The peace dividend : military spending cuts and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1577, The World Bank.
- Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005.
"Fiscal deficits and inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1993.
"The role of macroeconomic factors in growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
- Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Shamit Chakravarti & Rina Bhattacharya, 2002. "Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/142, International Monetary Fund.
- Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
- Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank.
- James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between inflation and Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- Philip R. Gerson, 1998. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy Variables on Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/1, International Monetary Fund.
- Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
- Kosuke Imai & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2000. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War," CID Working Papers 51, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938, March.
- Antonio David & Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos & Marshall Mills, 2011. "Post-conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?," IMF Working Papers 11/149, International Monetary Fund.
- Andreas Exenberger & Simon Hartmann, . "The Dark Side of Globalization. The Vicious Cycle of Exploitation from World Market Integration: Lesson from the Congo," Working Papers 2007-31, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.