Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation
AbstractThis paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the forecasting power of a variety of monthly indicators purely on goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer-run structural determinants. The result is a promising model for forecasting Thai core inflation over horizons up to 10, 24, and 55 months, based on a root mean-squared error criterion as well as a mean absolute error criterion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/90.
Date of creation: 01 May 2004
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2005-10-22 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2005-10-22 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-10-22 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2005-10-22 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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