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Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?

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Author Info
Irina Tytell
Shang-Jin Wei

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Abstract

Monetary and fiscal policies around the world are in better shape today than two decades ago. This paper studies whether financial globalization has helped induce governments to pursue better macroeconomic policies (the "discipline effect"). The empirical tests have two innovations. First, we recognize potential endogeneity of the observed capital flows in a given country and employ an instrumental variable approach that relies on the autonomous (global) component of the capital flows. Second, we recognize inherent discreteness in defining good versus bad macroeconomic policies and use a transition matrix technique to determine whether capital flows are effective in inducing substantial qualitative policy shifts. Our results suggest that, in spite of the plausibility of the "discipline effect" in theory, it is not easy to find strong and robust causal evidence. There is some evidence that financial globalization may have induced countries to pursue low-inflation monetary policies. However, there is no evidence that it has encouraged low budget deficits.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/84.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/84

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Keywords: Globalization ; Financial sector ; Inflation targeting ; Capital flows ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Ricci & Torsten Sloek, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 9100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1026, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kenneth Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mohsin S. Khan & A. Senhadji Semlali, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Capital Account Liberalization as a Signal," NBER Working Papers 5725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Woochan Kim, 2003. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Discipline Budget Deficit?," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(5), pages 830-844, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 14051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Irina Tytell & Florence Jaumotte, 2008. "How has the Globalization of Labor Affected the Labor Income Share in Advanced Countries?," IMF Working Papers 07/298, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Heinrich Ursprung, 2008. "The impact of globalization on the composition of government expenditures: Evidence from panel data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 263-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Philip Arestis & Asena Caner, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Poverty: How Close is the Link?," Working Papers 0811, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Celine Allard, 2007. "Inflation in Poland: How Much Can Globalization Explain?," IMF Working Papers 07/41, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Daniel Leigh & Alexander Plekhanov & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences," IMF Working Papers 07/178, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jean-Francois Segalotto & Martin Sommer & Marco Arnone & Bernard Laurens, 2007. "Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends," IMF Working Papers 07/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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