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Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare

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Author Info
Ivan Tchakarov
Selim Elekdag

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Abstract

The debate about the appropriate choice of exchange rate regime is fundamental in international economics. This paper develops a small open-economy model with balance sheet effects and compares the performance of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The model is solved up to a second-order approximation which allows us to address the issue of risk and welfare rigorously. The paper identifies threshold levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio above which fixed exchange rate regimes are welfare superior to monetary policy rules that imply flexible exchange rate regimes. The results suggest that emerging market economies that suffer from a relatively high level of indebtedness and are constrained in their pursuit of optimal monetary policy, could find it beneficial to opt for a fixed exchange rate regime.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/63.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 26 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/63

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Keywords: Exchange rate policy ; Capital markets ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Devereux, Michael B., 2004. "Monetary policy rules and exchange rate flexibility in a simple dynamic general equilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 287-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
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  3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2003. "Spurious welfare reversals in international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 471-500, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ivan Tchakarov & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Matter for Welfare?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 61, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Devereux, Michael B & Lane, Philip R., 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eduardo Moron & Juan F. Castro & Diego Winkelried, 2004. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Partially Dollarized Economies," International Finance 0406002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Diego Winkelried & Juan Francisco Castro & Eduardo Morón, 2004. "Understanding Financial Vulnerability in Partially Dollarized Economies," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 260, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcelo Sánchez, 2009. "Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea," Working Paper Series 1004, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Juan Carlos Berganza, 2004. "What Makes Balance Sheet Effects Detrimental For The Country Risk Premium?," International Finance 0408002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "A Framework for Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging Market Economies," Borradores de Economia 320, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Designing fiscal rules for commodity exporters," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv199, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag, 2006. "The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand," IMF Working Papers 06/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.

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