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A Puzzle of Microstructure Market Maker Models

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  • Rafael Romeu
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    Abstract

    This study addresses the empirical viability of microstructure models of dealer price setting. New evidence is presented rejecting these models'' specifications of how information asymmetry and inventory accumulation affect dealer pricing. This rejection is consistent with those of other dealer-level empirical studies. This study suggests a new modeling option may be to reconsider optimal price setting while relaxing assumptions that specify incoming orders as the only component through which dealer inventories evolve. This approach is consistent with inventory evolution data and with general equilibrium models'' assumptions about currency markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/6.

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    Length: 24
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/6

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic models; inventory; exchange rate; foreign exchange; exchange rates; inventory management; exchange markets; foreign exchange market; inventories; foreign exchange markets; exchange rate depreciation; inventory control; currency markets; exchange rate literature; exchange rate movements; exchange rate economics; exchange rate data; exchange rate changes; nominal exchange rates; exchange rate dynamics;

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Ananth Madhavan & Seymour Smidt, . "A Bayesian Model of Intraday Specialist Pricing," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008. "How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
    4. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1992. "The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Rafael Romeu, 2003. "An Intraday Pricing Model of Foreign Exchange Markets," IMF Working Papers 03/115, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ito, T. & Lyons, R. & Melvin, M.T., 1997. "Is There Private Information on the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Papers 97-04, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    7. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-51, September.
    10. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," Working Papers 506, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    11. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 361-376, December.
    12. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    13. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
    15. Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, . "Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    16. H. Henry Cao & Richard K. Lyons & Martin D.D. Evans, 2003. "Inventory Information," NBER Working Papers 9893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    18. Madhavan, Ananth & Sofianos, George, 1998. "An empirical analysis of NYSE specialist trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 189-210, May.
    19. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-75.
    21. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
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