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Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap

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Author Info
Andreas Billmeier

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Abstract

The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/57.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 20 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/57

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Keywords: Production ; Finland ; Inflation ; Economic forecasting ;

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  1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rasi, C.M. & Viikari, J.M., 1998. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland," Bank of Finland - Studies in Economics and Finance 6/98, Bank of Finland. Research Department..
  5. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kevin Ross & Angel J. Ubide, 2001. "Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 01/203, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jaromir Benes & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2004. "A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/45, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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