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Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

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Author Info
Eduardo Borensztein
Catherine A. Pattillo
Andrew Berg

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Abstract

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/52.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 09 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/52

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Related research
Keywords: Crisis prevention ; Currencies ; Economic indicators ; Economic forecasting ; Forecasting models ; Balance of payments need ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  7. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Eduardo Borensztein & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
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    Other versions:
  15. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs & Slacik, Tomas, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2005. "Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 837, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2005. "Bi-Polar Disorder: Exchange Rate Regimes, Economic Crises and the IMF," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0705, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  5. Nikolay Gueorguiev & Christoph Duenwald & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alfredo Pistelli, 2006. "Speculative Currency Attacks: Role of Inconsistent Macroeconomic Policies and Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 379, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2009. "Towards a Macroprudential Surveillance and Remedial Policy Formulation System for Monitoring Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  8. Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Alessio Ciarlone & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2006. "A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 588, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. John Cady & Anthony J. Pellechio, 2005. "Data Consistency in IMF Publications: Country Staff Reports Versus International Financial Statistics," IMF Working Papers 05/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Alfredo Pistelli, 2007. "Speculative currency attacks: role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies and real exchange rate overvaluation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(2), pages 3-27, December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2006. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 477, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Marcel Fratzscher & Matthieu Bussiere, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Martin Cihák & Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Based on a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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