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Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox

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Author Info
Sandeep Kapur
Luis Catão

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Abstract

A striking feature of sovereign lending is that many countries with moderate debt-to-income ratios systematically face higher spreads and more stringent borrowing constraints than others with far higher debt ratios. Earlier research has rationalized the phenomenon in terms of sovereign reputation and countries' distinct credit histories. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence to show that differences in underlying macroeconomic volatility are key. While volatility increases the need for international borrowing to help smooth domestic consumption, the ability to borrow is constrained by the higher default risk that volatility engenders.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/51.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 09 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/51

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Keywords: External debt ; Emerging markets ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    • Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 225-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Herschel I. Grossman & John B. Van Huyck, 1989. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 1673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2000. "Macroeconomic Volatility in Latin America: A View and Three Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 7782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Riezman, Raymond, 2001. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 55-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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  10. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1995. "Sovereign credit ratings," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  11. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp284, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2006. "Optimal Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Approach," RES Working Papers 4477, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Samuel Malone, 2005. "Managing Default Risk for Commodity Dependent Countries: Price Hedging in an Optimizing Model," Economics Series Working Papers 246, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Erdem Basci & M. Fatih Ekinci & Murat  Yülek, 2004. "On Fixed and Variable Fiscal Surplus Rules," IMF Working Papers 04/117, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hans Genberg & Astrit Sulstarova, 2005. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Debt Dynamics, and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads," Working Papers 182005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2008. "Globalization and the Great Divergence: Terms of Trade Booms and Volatility in the Poor Periphery 1782-1913," NBER Working Papers 13841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 163-187. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gill, Indermit & Pinto, Brian, 2005. "Public debt in developing countries : has the market-based model worked?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3674, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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