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The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: A Time Series Approach

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  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model to study the impact of stock markets on the current account. A closed-form solution for the current account is derived from the optimal portfolio and consumption/saving choices of a representative agent. Formally, the model can be seen as a stock market-augmented version of the "fundamental equation of the current account" popularized by Jeffrey Sachs. It appears to shed light on recent developments in the U.S. current account deficit. The model also shows how the current account may help predict future stock market performance and/or endowment streams.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/50.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/50

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Related research

Keywords: Stock markets; Economic models;

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References

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  1. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-59.
  2. Steven J. Davis & Jeremy Nalewaik & Paul Willen, 2000. "On the Gains to International Trade in Risky Financial Assets," NBER Working Papers 7796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-61, December.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  5. Jaume Ventura, 2001. "A Portfolio View of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 241-258.
  6. Kraay, A. & Ventura, J., 1997. "Current Acounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," Working papers 97-12, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
  8. Tim Callen & Paul Cashin, 1999. "Assessing External Sustainability in India," IMF Working Papers 99/181, International Monetary Fund.
  9. David A. Marshall & Nayan G. Parekh, 1999. "Can Costs of Consumption Adjustment Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 623-654, 04.
  10. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
  12. Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2001. "The Size and Sustainability of the Nigerian Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 01/87, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "Stock Markets and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/109, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial Integration and the Wealth Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 282, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2009. "The current account and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 302-321, September.
  5. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, 02.

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