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Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits

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  • Andrew Berg
  • Rebecca N. Coke

Abstract

Many estimates of early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis have reported incorrect standard errors because of serial correlation in the context of panel probit regressions. This paper documents the magnitude of the problem, proposes and tests a solution, and applies it to previously published EWS estimates. We find that (1) the uncorrected probit estimates substantially underestimate the true standard errors, by up to a factor of four; (2) a heteroskedasicity- and autocorrelation-corrected (HAC) procedure produces accurate estimates; and (3) most variables from the original models remain significant, though substantially less so than had been previously thought.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/39.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/39

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Keywords: Economic models; standard errors; bootstrap; standard error; correlation; currency crisis; covariance; autocorrelation; independent variables; equation; probability; currency crises; statistics; standard deviation; early warning systems; monte carlo simulation; statistic; simulation results; sample sizes; probabilities; prediction; monte carlo simulations; sample size; early warning system; bootstrap technique; consistent estimator; significance levels; time series; confidence intervals; econometrics; samples; forecasting; survey; significance level; empirical framework; models of currency crisis; time series analysis; contagion; nonlinear models; normal distributions; normal distribution; financial crises; equations; nonlinear model; financial statistics; crisis prevention; estimation technique;

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References

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  1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
  2. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  5. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  8. Kent Osband & Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2000. "Safety from Currency Crashes," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 4.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Tuomas Komulainen & ) & Johanna Lukkarila, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Macroeconomics 0304010, EconWPA.
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  12. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  14. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 248-272, September.
  15. Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
  18. Amadou N. R. Sy, 2003. "Rating the Rating Agencies," IMF Working Papers 03/122, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982. "Estimation and test in probit models with serial correlation," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8220, CEPREMAP.
  21. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
  2. Cipollini, Andrea & Fiordelisi, Franco, 2012. "Economic value, competition and financial distress in the European banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3101-3109.
  3. Gonzalez, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "A Study of Country-Risk for Non-Developed Countries in 1980-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1).
  4. Bettina Becker & Stephan G Hall, 2005. "Non-Linear Properties of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 13, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
  6. González, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 99-133.
  7. Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "Currency Crises Early Warning Systems: why they should be Dynamic," Research Memorandum 047, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  8. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
  9. Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Research Memorandum 046, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

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