Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Arnaud Jobert
  • Janet Kong
  • Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Abstract

We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on Merton''s (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it can predict a bank''s credit deterioration up to nine months in advance. The distance-to-default, hence, may prove useful for bank monitoring purposes.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17059
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/33.

as in new window
Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/33

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords: Banks; Emerging markets; forecasting; banking; correlation; bank distress; probability; banking system; equation; equations; covariance; banking crises; linear models; bank failure; bank vulnerability; statistic; samples; bank monitoring; statistical tests; standard errors; military bank; bank fragility; bank examinations; random variables; probability density function; mathematical statistics; regression analysis; federal deposit insurance; statistics; standard deviations; subordinated debt; exponential family; bank vulnerabilities; probability of default; banks ? liabilities; probability density; data analysis; bank rating; normal distribution; bank risk; sample size; bank regulators; banking crisis; bank supervisors; conditional expectation; statistical test; statistical package; bank failures; deposit insurance;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP-01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  3. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  4. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0150, European Central Bank.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  8. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.