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Institutions, Program Implementation, and Macroeconomic Performance

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  • Saleh M. Nsouli
  • Rouben Atoian
  • Alex Mourmouras
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    Abstract

    This paper assesses empirically the links among a country''s institutions and political environment, its implementation of IMF-supported programs, and macroeconomic performance in a sample of 197 programs approved between 1992 and 2002. We find that a stronger institutional and political environment is associated with better macroeconomic outcomes, especially at longer time horizons. This direct beneficial effect of institutions on macroeconomic outcomes is in addition to their indirect effect through better program implementation. We also find that program implementation exerts an independent influence on macroeconomic outcomes, especially over shorter time horizons of up to two years. Better-implemented programs are associated with lower inflation and with initially weaker but ultimately stronger external and fiscal outcomes, but with a statistically insignificant impact on economic growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/184.

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    Length: 41
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/184

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic models; inflation; statistics; equation; macroeconomic performance; correlation; probability; independent variable; dummy variables; standard deviations; lower inflation; equations; change in inflation; correlations; dummy variable; instrumental variables; price stability; outliers; descriptive statistics; inflation dynamics; inflation equation; reduction in inflation; empirical framework; logarithms; cumulative distribution function; statistical model; inflation rates; regression analysis; samples; correlation analysis; survey; estimation technique; errors in variables; predictions; time series; sample selection; covariance; sample size; polynomials; inflation performance; least squares method; econometrics; parameter estimate; surveys;

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    References

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    1. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06.
    2. Dreher, Axel, 2005. "IMF and Economic Growth: The Effects of Programs, Loans, and Compliance with Conditionality," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? a Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alex Mourmouras & Anna Ivanova & George C. Anayotos & Wolfgang Mayer, 2003. "What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs?," IMF Working Papers 03/8, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
    7. F. Rozwadowski & Siddharth Timari & David O. Robinson & Susan Schadler, 1993. "Economic Adjustment in Low-Income Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 106, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
    9. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Mecagni, Mauro & Schadler, Susan, 2000. "Evaluating the effect of IMF lending to low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 495-526, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Judith Gold & Ruben Atoyan & Cornelia Staritz, 2007. "Guyana," IMF Working Papers 07/86, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Javed, Omer, 2014. "Institutional quality, macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth: a case study of IMF programme countries," MPRA Paper 56370, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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