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Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status

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Author Info
Yaroslav Lissovolik
Bogdan Lissovolik
Abstract

With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia's export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/159.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/159

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Keywords: World Trade Organization ; Russian Federation ; Trade ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126, November.
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  4. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Wang, Z.K. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," Discussion Papers 92-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
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