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Russia and the WTO


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  • Yaroslav Lissovolik
  • Bogdan Lissovolik
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    With China''s accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization''s most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia''s export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model''s predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia''s exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia''s further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO''s overall role in promoting trade.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/159.

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    Length: 43
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/159

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    Keywords: Trade; World Trade Organization; Economic models; dummy variable; trade restrictions; trading partners; statistics; import duties; outliers; logarithm; dummy variables; non-wto members; trade flows; international trade; external trade; trade reorientation; export structure; partner country; trade partners; foreign trade; standard error; trade pattern; dispute settlement; global trade; bilateral trade; statistical significance; mean square; trade patterns; world economy; trade liberalization; trade preferences; trade structure; political economy; trading partner; free trade; trade barriers; world trade; accession negotiations; antidumping procedures; equation; standard errors; time series; trade liberalizations; multilateral trade; antidumping duties; trade performance; trade regime; trading arrangements; stata; independent variables; trade policies; export performance; commodity composition; liberal trade; restrictive rules of origin; empirical model; empirical result; trade effect; competitive pressures; import tariff; constant term; multilateral agreements; preferential treatment; sensitivity analysis; external trade barriers; multilateral trade liberalization; partner countries; most-favored-nation; economic integration; trading patterns; trade regimes; import quotas; transition countries; world price; missing observations; trade determinants; equilibrium model; statistic; world trading system; bilateral agreement; non-tariff measures; import competition; negotiating position; correlation; predictions; transition period; trading system; global trading; free trade areas; trade data; trade policy variables; economic community; transitional periods; trade promotion; independent variable; trade openness; trade policy options; regression analysis; average import tariff; tariff levels; safeguard measures; antidumping actions; general equilibrium models; probability; liberal trade policy; binary choice; nonmember countries; general equilibrium model; multilateral negotiations; trade gains; trade sector; trade integration; transport equipment; rules of origin; idiosyncratic factors; trade negotiations; antidumping cases; measurement error; trade areas; logarithms; trade model; preferential trade; trade costs;

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    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    2. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 38, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Alexander Alekseev & Natalia Tourdyeva & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2003. "Estimation of the Russia’s trade policy options with the help of the Computable General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers w0042, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    6. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
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    Cited by:
    1. Sergey Kolesnikov & Olga Podkorytova, 2011. "Russia's Trade Flows and WTO," DEGIT Conference Papers, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade c016_068, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.


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