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Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

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Author Info
Carlos Mulas-Granados
Emanuele Baldacci
Benedict J. Clements
Sanjeev Gupta

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Abstract

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF-supported programs also have a higher probability of success.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/157.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 02 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/157

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Related research
Keywords: Emerging markets ; Transition economies ; Fiscal policy ; Economic models ; Structural adjustment ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Marco Buti & Paul van den Noord, 2003. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Elections: The Experience of the Early Years of EMU," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 351, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Catriona M. Purfield, 2003. "Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence from the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 03/36, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 197-266. [Downloadable!]
  5. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 1999. "Political Economics and Public Finance," NBER Working Papers 7097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. von Hagen, J. & Hallett, A.H. & Strauch, R., 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 148, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Perotti, Roberto & Kontopoulos, Yianos, 2002. "Fragmented fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 191-222, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Emanuele Baldacci & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Erwin Tiongson, 2003. "What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?," IMF Working Papers 03/224, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alesina, Alberto F & Ardagna, Silvia & Perotti, Roberto & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1999. "Fiscal Policy, Profits and Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Mark Hallerberg & Jurgen von Hagen, 1997. "Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union," NBER Working Papers 6341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Westcott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 96/59, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Lambertini, Luisa & Tavares, Jose, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Beck, Thorsten & Clarke, George & Groff, Alberto & Keefer, Philip & Walsh, Patrick, 2000. "New tools and new tests in comparative political economy - the database of political institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2283, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert Lavigne, 2006. "The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment," Working Papers 06-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rishi Goyal & Ratna Sahay, 2007. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/287, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Abdul Abiad & Taimur Baig, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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