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What are the Potential Economic Benefits of Enlarging the Gulf Cooperation Council?

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Author Info
Ivan Tchakarov
Selim Elekdag
Saade Chami

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Abstract

This paper uses a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) to estimate the macroeconomic effects of Yemen's full accession into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). After calibrating the model to Yemen and the GCC countries, several simulations were carried out to estimate the potential impact of economic integration on both. The paper draws two fundamental conclusions. First, further steps in regional integration would enhance competition and produce large economic benefits for both Yemen and the GCC countries. In particular, we show that in some cases economic integration could increase GDP in Yemen by as much as 18 percent and in the GCC by as much as 20 percent over the long run. Second, even if market structures do not improve substantially, GCC enlargement can still generate substantial spillover gains with consumption increasing by up to 7 percent in Yemen and 8 percent in the GCC, respectively.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/152.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 27 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/152

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Keywords: Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf ; Exchange rate regimes ; Currency pegs ; Economic models ;

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  14. Horn, Henrik & Lang, Harald & Lundgren, Stefan, 1995. "Managerial effort incentives, X-inefficiency and international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 117-138, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Rishi Goyal & Ugo Fasano-Filho, 2004. "Emerging Strains in GCC Labor Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/71, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Shafik Hebous, 2006. "On the Monetary Union of the Gulf States," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 431, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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