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What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?

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Author Info
Catherine A. Pattillo
Hélène Poirson
Luca Antonio Ricci

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Abstract

This paper investigates the channels through which debt affects growth, specifically whether debt affects growth through factor accumulation or total factor productivity growth. It also tests for the presence of nonlinearities in the effects of debt on the different sources of growth. We use a large panel dataset of 61 developing countries over the period 1969-98. Results indicate that the negative impact of high debt on growth operates both through a strong negative effect on physical capital accumulation and on total factor productivity growth. On average, for high-debt countries, doubling debt will reduce output growth by about 1 percentage point and reduce both per capita physical capital and total factor productivity growth by somewhat less than that. In terms of the contributions to growth, approximately one-third of the effect of debt on growth occurs via physical capital accumulation and two-thirds via total factor productivity growth. The results are generally robust to the use of alternative estimators to control (to different extents) for biases associated with unobserved country-specific effects and the endogeneity of several regressors, particularly the debt variables. In particular, the results are shown to be compatible with a simultaneous significant effect of growth on debt ratios, as suggested by Easterly (2001).

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/15.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 10 Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/15

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Keywords: External debt ; Economic growth ;

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  3. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 164, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. repec:bep:maccon:v:1:y:2001:i:contributions/1/1:p:1013-1013 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Hoeffler, Anke E, 2002. " The Augmented Solow Model and the African Growth Debate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 135-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins and Georgetown University, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-2), pages 113-206. [Downloadable!]
  14. Nancy Birdsall & Stijn Claessens & Ishac Diwan, 2002. "Policy Selectivity Foregone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa," Working Papers 17, Center for Global Development. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Catherine A. Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2002. "External Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 02/69, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
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    • Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arturo Harker & Marcela Melendez, 2008. "Revisiting Economic Growth in Colombia: A Microeconomic Perspective," RES Working Papers 2006, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jean Imbs & Romain Rancière, 2005. "The Overhang Hangover," Economics Working Papers 878, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2008. "Public Governance, Health and Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009_04, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:bep:glecon:7:2007:2:2 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2004. "Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries," Working Papers 2005:34, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Cassimon, Denis & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Debt Sustainability for Low-Income Countries: A Review of Standard and Alternative Concepts," MPRA Paper 11077, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?," RES Working Papers 4502, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ralf Hepp, 2005. "Health Expenditures Under the HIPC Debt Initiative," International Finance 0510005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Inversión pública en infraestructura en América Latina: ¿Es la deuda la culpable?," RES Working Papers 4503, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Roberto S. Mariano & Delano Villanueva, 2005. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Growth," Working Papers 13-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
  12. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "Debt Relief Effectiveness and Institution Building," MPRA Paper 12597, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(30), pages 1-28. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gill, Indermit & Pinto, Brian, 2005. "Public debt in developing countries : has the market-based model worked?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3674, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sergio Clavijo Vergara, 2004. "Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
  17. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2007. "External Debt and Economic Reform: Does a Pain Reliever Delay the Necessary Treatment?," IMF Working Papers 07/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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