Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

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Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Author Info

Andreas Billmeier

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Andreas Billmeier

Abstract

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/146.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 18 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/146

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-10-22 (All new papers)
NEP-FOR-2005-10-22 (Forecasting)
NEP-MAC-2005-10-22 (Macroeconomics)

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 04/57, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Andreas Billmeier, 2006. "Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 69-83, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
Adolfo L.Cobo, . "Output Gap in Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," Borradores de Economia 327, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Adolfo Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap In Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003310, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
Antonella Palumbo, . "I Metodi Di Stima Del Pil Potenziale Tra Fondamenti Di Teoria Economica E Contenuto Empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre. [Downloadable!]

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