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Caribbean Business Cycles

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  • Paul Cashin

Abstract

This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth) are identified. It is found that Caribbean classical cycles are longer-lived than those of developed countries and non-Caribbean developing countries. While there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in the Caribbean classical cycle, on both measures the Caribbean growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, there is some evidence of synchronization among the classical cycles of Caribbean countries, and stronger evidence of synchronization of Caribbean growth cycles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/136.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/136

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Keywords: St. Kitts and Nevis; St. Lucia; St. Vincent and the Grenadines; Economic growth; real gdp; business cycles; growth cycles; correlation; business cycle; statistic; statistics; time series; gdp growth; correlations; probability; equation; skewness; standard deviation; kurtosis; growth rates; heteroscedasticity; covariance; constant term; random walk; least squares regression; normal distribution; standard errors; autocorrelation; growth rate; samples; sample size; logarithm; business cycle fluctuations; polynomial; logarithms; properties of business cycles; random variable; real business cycles; transmission of business cycles; consistent estimate; monte carlo simulations; random coefficient; hypothesis testing; nature of business cycle; time series analysis; random walks; arithmetic; covariances; financial statistics;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Structural VAR identification of the Turkish business cycles," MPRA Paper 21971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
  3. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques
    [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]
    ," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Evridiki Tsounta, 2008. "What Attracts tourists to Paradise?," IMF Working Papers 08/277, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Juliana Dutra Araujo, 2009. "Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 09/158, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Yan Sun & Wendell A. Samuel, 2009. "ECCU Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 09/71, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2013. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_749, Levy Economics Institute.
  8. Ramirez, Francisco A., 2009. "Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008
    [International Shocks and GDP
    ," MPRA Paper 38987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 04/224, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case," MPRA Paper 21717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Sebastian Sosa & Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 09/159, International Monetary Fund.

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