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When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion

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Author Info
Fernando Broner
Gaston R. Gelos
Carmen Reinhart

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Abstract

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/131.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 09 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/131

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Keywords: Financial crisis ; Emerging markets ; Stock markets ; Forecasting models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sergio L. Schmukler & Tatiana Didier & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Vanishing Contagion?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 06/01, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Itay Goldstein & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2008. "Liquidity, Institutional Quality and the Composition of International Equity Outflows," NBER Working Papers 13723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints," NBER Working Papers 11440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Serven, Luis, 2009. "Are all the sacred cows dead ? implications of the financial crisis for macro and financial policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4807, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Leila Ali & Yan Kestens, 2006. "Contagion and Crises Clusters: Toward a Regional Warning System?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 814-839, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kannan, Prakash & Kohler-Geib, Fritzi, 2009. "The uncertainty channel of contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4995, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2007. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," NBER Working Papers 13076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Irina Tytell & Selim Elekdag & Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Melisso Boschi & Aditya Goenka, 2007. "Relative Risk Aversion And The Transmission Of Financial Crises," CAMA Working Papers 2007-28, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Bleaney, & Liliana Castilleja Vargas, . "Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers 07/12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2006. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001115, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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