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When in Peril, Retrench

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors'' risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors'' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds'' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/131.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/131

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Related research

Keywords: Emerging markets; investors; risk aversion; stock market; mutual funds; international investors; expected returns; international finance; capital markets; international capital markets; fixed costs; stock market capitalization; foreign investors; index funds; short sales; risk premium; fixed income; investment banks; international capital; global equity markets; equity funds; investment decisions; total market capitalization;

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References

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  1. Eduardo R. Borensztein & R. Gaston Gelos, 2001. "A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," CESifo Working Paper Series 564, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2011. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Working Papers 308, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Simon Johnson & Peter Boone & Alasdair Breach & Eric Friedman, 1999. "Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 297, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  5. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
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  7. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
  8. Shang-Jin Wei & Gaston Gelos, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/174, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? a Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
  11. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  12. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  13. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  14. Busse, Jeffrey A., 2001. "Another Look at Mutual Fund Tournaments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 53-73, March.
  15. Jennifer Koski & Jeffrey Pontiff, 1996. "How Are Derivatives Used? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  16. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  17. Manmohan S. Kumar & Avinash Persaud, 2001. "Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite," IMF Working Papers 01/134, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  19. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
  20. Piti Disyatat & Gaston Gelos, 2001. "The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Working Papers 01/111, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 259-273.
  2. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland.

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