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When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion

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Author Info
Fernando Broner
Gaston R. Gelos
Carmen Reinhart

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Abstract

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/131.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 09 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/131

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Keywords: Financial crisis Emerging markets Stock markets Forecasting models

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sergio L. Schmukler & Tatiana Didier & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Vanishing Contagion?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 06/01, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Crises in Emerging Market Economies: A Global Perspective," NBER Working Papers 11305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Itay Goldstein & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2008. "Liquidity, Institutional Quality and the Composition of International Equity Outflows," NBER Working Papers 13723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints," NBER Working Papers 11440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "A Framework for Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging Market Economies," Borradores de Economia 320, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2007. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," NBER Working Papers 13076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2005. "Evaluation of Exchange-Rate, Capital Market, and Dollarization Regimes in the Presence of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Melisso Boschi & Aditya Goenka, 2007. "Relative Risk Aversion And The Transmission Of Financial Crises," CAMA Working Papers 2007-28, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2006. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001115, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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