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Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow or Not at All?

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  • C. John McDermott
  • Paul Cashin

Abstract

Consensus estimates put the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) at about four years (Rogoff, 1996). However, conventional least squares estimates of half-lives are biased downward. Accordingly, as a preferred measure of the persistence of real exchange rate shocks, this study uses median-unbiased estimators of the half-life of deviations from parity, which correct for the downward bias of conventional estimators. The paper tests for PPP using real effective exchange rate data for 90 developed and developing countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. Support for PPP is found, as the majority of countries experience finite deviations of real exchange rates from parity. The speed of parity reversion is found to be typically much faster for developed countries than for developing countries, and to be considerably faster for countries with flexible nominal exchange rate regimes in comparison with countries having fixed nominal exchange rate regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/128.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/128

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Keywords: Purchasing power parity; Real effective exchange rates; Flexible exchange rate policy; Economic models;

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References

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  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  2. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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  28. repec:imf:imfpdp:9305 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.
  2. Miranda, Jorge, 2012. "Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile: Dinámica, Tendencia y Equilibrio
    [Real Exchange Rate in Chile: Dynamics, Trend and Equilibrium]    ," MPRA Paper 43076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ganguly, Srideep & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2010. "Nominal exchange rate volatility, relative price volatility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 840-856, September.
  4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
  5. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity: The Irish Experience Re-visited," Trinity Economics Papers tep200615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  6. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.

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