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Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More

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Author Info

  • Dani Rodrik
  • Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

Using a simple growth accounting framework, we project India''s future potential output growth rate through 2025. We argue that there is perhaps more upside potential than downside risks to our central estimate of annual growth, which is close to 7 percent for aggregate output, or 5.5 percent for output per capita.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/118.

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Length: 17
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/118

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Production; growth rate; human capital; total factor productivity; growth accounting; skilled labor; educational services; growth rate of output; growth rates; per capita income; dynamic benefits; economic growth rate; marginal product; service sectors; market failure; technological progress; per capita economic growth; economic growth performance; foreign capital;

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References

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  1. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge," IMF Working Papers 04/77, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," NBER Working Papers 10376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 1133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 1995. "Internal Migration, Center-State Grants and Economic Growth in the States of India," IMF Working Papers 95/66, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sabyasachi Kar & Debajit Jha & Alpana Kateja, 2011. "Club-convergence and polarization of states: A nonparametric analysis of post-reform India," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 53-72, April.
  2. Kaushik Basu & Annemie Maertens, 2007. "The pattern and causes of economic growth in India," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 143-167, Summer.
  3. Felipe, Jesus & LaviƱa, Editha & Fan, Emma Xiaoqin, 2008. "The Diverging Patterns of Profitability, Investment and Growth of China and India During 1980-2003," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 741-774, May.
  4. Mazumdar, Surajit, 2008. "Investment and growth in India under liberalization: Asymmetries and Instabilities," MPRA Paper 19629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Amin, Mohammad & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2008. "Human capital and the changing structure of the Indian economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4576, The World Bank.
  6. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
  7. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Hiroko Oura, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth in India," IMF Working Papers 08/79, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Agarwal, Manmohan & Whalley, John, 2013. "The 1991 Reforms, Indian Economic Growth, and Social Progress," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 128, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  10. Manmohan Agarwal & John Whalley, 2013. "The 1991 Reforms, Indian Economic Growth, and Social Progress," NBER Working Papers 19024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ajit Singh & Sukti Dasgupta, 2005. "Will services be the new engine of economic growth in India?," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp310, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
  12. Kaushik Basu, 2008. "The Enigma of India," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 396-406, June.
  13. Kaliappa Kalirajan & Kanhaiya Singh, 2013. "Understanding Sectoral Economic Growth in India: The Potential for Services," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(1), pages 91-112, April.
  14. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
  15. Hiroko Oura, 2007. "Wild or Tamed?," IMF Working Papers 07/224, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Geoffrey N. Keim & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "India's future: it's about jobs," International Finance Discussion Papers 913, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Singh, Nirvikar, 2006. "Services-led industrialization in India: Assessment and lessons," MPRA Paper 1276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Nombulelo Duma, 2007. "Sri Lanka's Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 07/225, International Monetary Fund.
  19. repec:cge:warwcg:127 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Sahu, Santosh & Narayanan, K, 2009. "Determinants of Energy Intensity: A Preliminary Investigation of Indian Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 16606, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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