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Why India Can Grow at 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections

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Author Info
Dani Rodrik
Arvind Subramanian

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Abstract

Using a simple growth accounting framework, we project India's future potential output growth rate through 2025. We argue that there is perhaps more upside potential than downside risks to our central estimate of annual growth, which is close to 7 percent for aggregate output, or 5.5 percent for output per capita.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/118.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/118

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Keywords: Economic growth ; India ; Production ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Working Papers 04/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 1995. "Internal Migration, Center-State Grants and Economic Growth in the States of India," IMF Working Papers 95/66, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arvind Virmani, 2009. "China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons for Democratic Developing Countries," Working Papers id:1899, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nombulelo Duma, 2007. "Sri Lanka's Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 07/225, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Arvind Virmani, 2007. "The Sudoku Of Growth, Poverty and Malnutrition: Policy Implications for Lagging States," Working Papers id:1136, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  4. Singh, Nirvikar, 2006. "Services-Led Industrialization in India: Assessment and Lessons," MPRA Paper 1276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Raghuram Rajan & Utsav Kumar & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows?," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hiroko Oura, 2007. "Wild or Tamed?: India's Potential Growth," IMF Working Papers 07/224, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Geoffrey N. Keim & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "India's future: it's about jobs," International Finance Discussion Papers 913, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Basu, Kaushik & Maertens, Annemie, 2007. "The Pattern and Causes of Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 07-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hiroko Oura, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth in India: A Growing Tiger in a Cage?," IMF Working Papers 08/79, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sahu, Santosh & Narayanan, K, 2009. "Determinants of Energy Intensity: A Preliminary Investigation of Indian Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 16606, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Tripolar century: USA, China and India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 160, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  12. Amin, Mohammad & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2008. "Human capital and the changing structure of the Indian economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4576, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ajit Singh & Sukti Dasgupta, 2005. "Will services be the new engine of economic growth in India?," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp310, ESRC Centre for Business Research. [Downloadable!]
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