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Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

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Author Info

  • Jacques Miniane
  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data we find that: (i) the Wald test often leads to the wrong inference compared to a valid test; (ii) in all cases posterior distributions of the predicted series and associated correlation coefficients and variance ratios are very wide. In particular, one cannot draw any firm conclusion regarding excess current account volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/106.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/106

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Related research

Keywords: Economic models; current account; correlation; probability; covariance; statistic; samples; equation; predictions; variance analysis; sample size; excess volatility; graphical analysis; current account deficits; confidence intervals; time series; correlation analysis; current account adjustment; reserve bank; probabilities; statistics; asymptotic distribution; bayesian analysis; current account deficit; central bank; prediction; sampling distribution; financial statistics; statistical analysis; sampling; cointegration; normal distribution; equations; statistical inference;

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References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  2. Cashin, P., 1996. "Are Australia's Current Account deficits Excessive?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 533, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  4. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
  5. Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001. "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/02, New Zealand Treasury.
  6. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
  7. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
  2. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0638, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Anthony Makin & Wei Zhang & Grant Scobie, 2009. "The contribution of foreign borrowing to the New Zealand economy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 263-278.
  4. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, 02.
  5. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
  6. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2011. "Have domestic or foreign factors driven European external imbalances?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 537-546, April.
  7. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2008. "The Polemics and Empirics of the Sustainability of Australia’s Current Account Deficit - Revisited," Discussion Papers Series 364, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  8. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 440, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2006. "The Present Value Model and New Zealand’s Current Account," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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