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Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership

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  • S. Nuri Erbas
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    Abstract

    Program conditionality and ownership are important considerations in the IMF''s current rethinking of program design. This paper contributes to the literature by developing a theory of program conditionality and ownership on the basis of Cumulative Prospect Theory. The policymaker may value a set of programs, each with fewer conditions, more than an extended program with as many conditions. This valuation bias is greater in ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) than under uncertainty. If greater valuation of a program engenders more explicit and implicit ownership, then programs with fewer conditions may have a better chance of success. Less is more.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16504
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/98.

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    Length: 18
    Date of creation: 01 May 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/98

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic models; probability; conditionality; probabilities; adjustment programs; structural adjustment; structural adjustment programs;

    References

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    1. Dewatripont, Mathias & Roland, Gérard, 1993. "The Design of Reform Packages Under Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Uzi Segal, 1985. "The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 362, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. P. Lian & S.-J. Wei, 1998. "To Shock or Not to Shock? Economics and Political Economy of Large-Scale Reforms," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 161-183, 07.
    4. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. " Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    5. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December.
    6. S. Nuri Erbas, 2002. "Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment," IMF Working Papers 02/50, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1993. " Testing for Juxtaposition and Event-Splitting Effects," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 235-54, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Peter Leeson & Christopher Coyne, 2007. "The reformers’ dilemma: media, policy ownership, and reform," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 237-250, June.
    2. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Jonathan David Ostry & Olivier Jeanne, 2008. "A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality," IMF Working Papers 08/236, International Monetary Fund.

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