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The ECB's Money Pillar: An Assessment

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Author Info
Albert Jaeger
Abstract

This paper discusses the case for a money pillar in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy strategy. Time-series evidence for industrial countries based on frequency-domain and unobserved-components analysis suggests that money can play a useful role in gauging and constraining long-run risks to price stability. Moreover, the specter of asset price bubbles and some of the area's institutional features, which may impart considerable persistence to area-wide inflation, caution against shifting to conventional inflation targeting. But the time series evidence also seems to point to a relatively loose connection between variations in nominal money growth and inflation in the short to medium run. As a consequence, effective communication of the ECB's monetary policy decisions from the point of view of the present money pillar is likely to remain a challenging task.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/82.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 06 May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/82

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Keywords: European Central Bank ; Monetary policy ; Inflation ; Price stabilization ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alina Carare & Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andrea Schaechter & Marc Zelmer, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. De Grauwe, Paul & Polan, Magdalena, 2001. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2841, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Douglas Laxton & Papa N’Diaye, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence from Seventeen OECD Countries," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 364, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Rich, Georg, 2000. "Monetary Policy without Central Bank Money: A Swiss Perspective," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 439-69, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Petra Gerlach, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Greater Monetary Policy Transparency for the G3: Lessons from Full-Fledged Inflation Targeters," IMF Working Papers 03/218, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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