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Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

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Author Info
Oya Celasun
Gaston R. Gelos
Alessandro Prati

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Abstract

Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/49.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/49

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Keywords: Inflation ; Turkey ; Price stabilization ;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ghezzi, Piero, 2001. "Backward-looking indexation, credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 127-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Durevall, Dick, 1999. "Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 407-421, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 10 Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2001. "No Pain, No Gain? The Simple Analytics of Efficient Disinflation in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. G. C. Lim & Laura Papi, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-22, October.
  10. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oya Pınar Ardıç & Faruk Selçuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Macroeconomics 0404003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Yuzereroglu, Uygar, 2007. "How Do Individuals Choose Banks? An Application to Household Level Data from Turkey," MPRA Paper 6096, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ardic, Oya Pinar, 2006. "Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey," MPRA Paper 6099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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