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Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

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Author Info
Valerie Cerra
Sweta Chaman Saxena

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Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all of the countries studied.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/48.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/48

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Related research
Keywords: Production ; Asia ; Hong Kong SAR ; Indonesia ; Korea; Republic of ; Malaysia ; Philippines ; Singapore ; Thailand ; Financial crisis ; Investment ; Business cycles ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis - Causes, Policy Responses and Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 99/138, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
    Other versions:
  4. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kalpana Kochhar & Prakash Loungani & Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis - Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 98/128, International Monetary Fund.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stanley Watt & Saade Chami & Donal McGettigan, 2007. "Jordan's International Reserve Position: Justifiably Strong," IMF Working Papers 07/103, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Lejot & Douglas Arner & Liu Qiao & Mylene Chan & Mshall Mays, 2003. "Asia's Debt Capital Markets: Appraisal and Agenda for Policy Reform," Working Papers 192003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2004. "Does devaluation lead to economic recovery or contraction? Theory and policy with reference to Thailand," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 141-156. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Milan Zavadjil, 2008. "Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?," IMF Working Papers 08/192, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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