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Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa

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Author Info
Luca Antonio Ricci
Ronald MacDonald

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Abstract

Based on the Johansen cointegration estimation methodology, much of the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate of South Africa can be explained by real interest rate differentials, GDP per capita (both relative to trading partners), real commodity prices, trade openness, the fiscal balance, and the extent of net foreign assets. On the basis of these fundamentals, the real exchange rate in early 2002 was found to be significantly more depreciated with respect to the estimated equilibrium level. The half-life of the deviation of the real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium one was found to be somewhat more than two years.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/44.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 28 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/44

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Keywords: Real effective exchange rates South Africa

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke, 2006. "Resource Boom, Productivity Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics - A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa," Working Paper Series 7206, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Said Bakhache & Kadima D. Kalonji & Mark Lewis & Jean-Claude Nachega, 2007. "Assessing Competitiveness After Conflict: The Case of the Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 06/303, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Faisal Ahmed & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Todd Schneider & Saade Chami, 2007. "Yemen: Exchange Rate Policy in the Face of Dwindling Oil Exports," IMF Working Papers 07/5, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Iyabo Masha & Kazuko Shirono & Leighton Harris & Jian-Ye Wang, 2007. "The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustment, and Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 07/158, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rina Bhattacharya & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 06/185, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," Studies in Economics 0407, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  8. Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "Determinants of Venezuela's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 06/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  10. Frank Leung & Philip Ng, 2007. "Is the Hong Kong Dollar Real Exchange Rate Misaligned?," Working Papers 0721, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade 0502013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rowe, Francis & Li, Ying, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Karine Gente & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Does the World Real Interest Rate Affect the Real Exchange Rate? The South East Asian Experience," Studies in Economics 0405, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
  17. Eva Gutierrez, 2006. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 06/261, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth - The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 06/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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