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Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization

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Author Info
Sergio L. Schmukler
Graciela Laura Kaminsky

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Abstract

We examine the short- and long-run effects of financial liberalization on capital markets. To do so, we construct a new comprehensive chronology of financial liberalization in 28 mature and emerging market economies since 1973. We also construct an algorithm to identify booms and busts in stock market prices. Our results indicate that financial liberalization is followed by more pronounced boom-bust cycles in the short run. However, financial liberalization leads to more stable markets in the long run. Finally, we analyze the sequencing of liberalization and institutional reforms to understand the contrasting short- and long-run effects of liberalization.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/34.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 13 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/34

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Keywords: Capital account liberalization ; Financial stability ; Capital controls ; Stock markets ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Robert S. Dohner & Ponciano Intal, Jr., 1989. "The Philippine Financial System and the Debt Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 3: Country Studies - Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Turkey, pages 481-503 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Englund, Peter, 1990. "Financial deregulation in Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 385-393, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  7. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Research series 200405-9, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nada Choueiri & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Has the Nature of Crises Changed? A Quarter Century of Currency Crises in Argentina," IMF Working Papers 99/152, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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  14. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Philippe Martin & Hélène Rey, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," NBER Working Papers 11550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Thomas F. Hellmann & Kevin C. Murdock & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  19. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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