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Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

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Author Info
Abdul Abiad
Abstract

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/32.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 05 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/32

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Keywords: Financial crisis ; Currencies ; Economic models ;

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  1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1269, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17-07, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Reconnecting the Markov Switching Model with Economic Fundamentals," Working Papers 2004:4, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, . "On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty," Working Papers 2008-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
  6. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Masahiro Fukuhara & Yasufumi Saruwatari, 2007. "A Model Forecasting Risk for Emerging Market Currencies," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 325-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Matesanz Gómez, David & Ortega, Guillermo J., 2005. "Economic growth and currency crisis: A real exchange rate entropic approach," MPRA Paper 211, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Sula, Ozan, 2006. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 383, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-322, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Implementing an International Lender of Last Resort," IWH Discussion Papers 20-06, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  15. Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Signaling currency crises in South Africa," IWH Discussion Papers 19-06, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gerardo Esquivel & Felipe Larraín, 2003. "¿Qué Sabemos Realmente sobre las Crisis Cambiarias?," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 656-667. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jan P. A. M. Lestano, 2007. "Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 371-388. [Downloadable!]
  19. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  20. Irene Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Working Papers 0709, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Business Confidence and Cyclical Turning Points: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics 07/19, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Rebecca N. Coke & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  23. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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