Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Benedict J. Clements
  • Sanjeev Gupta
  • Erwin Tiongson
  • Emanuele Baldacci
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the legacy of previous fiscal failures, the size of the deficit, the composition of spending, and level of total revenues. There is also some evidence that the initial debt stock, exchange rate developments, inflation, and the unemployment rate have an impact on the persistence of adjustments.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16956
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/224.

    as in new window
    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/224

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal consolidation; Emerging markets; Fiscal reforms; Structural adjustment;

    Other versions of this item:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Sanjeev Gupta & Benedict Clements & Emanuele Baldacci & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2004. "The persistence of fiscal adjustments in developing countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 209-212.
    2. Luisa Lambertini & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 576, Boston College Department of Economics.
    3. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-10, May.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    7. Ali Bayar, 2001. "Entry and exit dynamics of excessive deficits in the European Union," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13494, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Vito Tanzi & Howell H. Zee, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth," IMF Working Papers 96/119, International Monetary Fund.
    9. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    10. Perotti, Roberto, 1998. " The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-94, March.
    11. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    12. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
    13. repec:fda:fdaddt:2001-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Soojin Moon & Ales Bulir, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?," IMF Working Papers 03/38, International Monetary Fund.
    15. A.J. Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits under the Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 421-444, 06.
    16. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    18. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-41, September.
    19. Richard Hemming & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 218, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Naoko C. Kojo & Arye L. Hillman & Emanuele Baldacci, 2003. "Growth, Governance, and Fiscal Policy Transmission Channels in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/237, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ardagna, Silvia, 2001. " Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 301-25, December.
    22. Ardagna, Silvia, 2001. "Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity," Scholarly Articles 2579823, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    23. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
    24. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. " Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-24, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Emanuele Baldacci & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2004. "Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?," IMF Working Papers 04/157, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Murtaza H. Syed & Michael Skaarup & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2008. "Addressing Korea's Long-Term Fiscal Challenges," IMF Working Papers 08/27, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mati, Amine & Thornton, John, 2008. "The exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 115-118, July.
    4. Sanjeev Gupta & Alejandro Simone & Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/244, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Emanuele Baldacci, 2009. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 09/160, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2014. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants’ Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-190.
    7. Schaltegger, Christoph & Weder, Martin, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79979, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. World Bank, 2008. "Nicaragua : Public Expenditure Review 2001-2006," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8090, The World Bank.
    9. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 2703, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Robert Lavigne, 2006. "The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment," Working Papers 06-1, Bank of Canada.
    11. Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.