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Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans

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Author Info
Ivanna Vladkova Hollar
Carlo Cottarelli
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

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Abstract

Following a period of privatization and restructuring, commercial banks in Central and Eastern Europe and, more recently, in the Balkans have rapidly expanded their lending to the private sector. This paper describes the causes of this expansion, assesses future trends, and evaluates its policy implications. It concludes that bank credit to the private sector is likely to continue rising faster than GDP in the next few years throughout the region, picking up also in countries where so far it has been stalled. Although this growth should be regarded as a structural and positive development, policymakers will have to evaluate carefully its implications for macroeconomic developments and financial stability.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/213.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: 17 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/213

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Keywords: Credit expansion Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia FYR Poland Romania Serbia and Montenegro Private sector Transition economies Privatization Liquidity Capital controls Credit ceilings

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Köke, Jens & Schröder, Michael, 2002. "The Prospects of Capital Markets in Central and Eastern Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-57, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Alex Mourmouras, 2002. "Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant," IMF Working Papers 02/11, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Michael Klein & Giovanni Olivei, 1999. "Capital account liberalization, financial depth, and economic growth," Working Papers 99-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  6. John H. Boyd & Ross E. Levine & Bruce D. Smith, 1996. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Paper 9617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  8. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Financial Reform: What Shakes It? What Shapes It?," IMF Working Papers 03/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  11. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio, Jr. & Ross Levine, 2002. "Bank Regulation and Supervision: What Works Best?," NBER Working Papers 9323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marketta Henriksson, 2005. "Productivity differentials and external balance in ERM II," International Finance 0508013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 06/26, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Designing Stress Tests for the Czech Banking System," Research and Policy Notes 2004/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Daniel Ottens & Edwin Lambregts & Steven Poelhekke, 2005. "Credit Booms in Emerging Market Economies: A Recipe for Banking Crises?," DNB Working Papers 046, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2006. "Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/414, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  8. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe - new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Emilio Sacerdoti, 2005. "Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Issues and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 05/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Henriksson , Marketta, 2005. "Productivity differentials and external balance in ERM II," Research Discussion Papers 7/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jerome Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Andrea M. Maechler & Srobona Mitra & DeLisle Worrell, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 07/248, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Zsófia Ãrvai, 2005. "Capital Account Liberalization, Capital Flow Patterns, and Policy Responses in the EU's New Member States," IMF Working Papers 05/213, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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