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Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans

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Author Info
Ivanna Vladkova Hollar
Carlo Cottarelli
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

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Abstract

Following a period of privatization and restructuring, commercial banks in Central and Eastern Europe and, more recently, in the Balkans have rapidly expanded their lending to the private sector. This paper describes the causes of this expansion, assesses future trends, and evaluates its policy implications. It concludes that bank credit to the private sector is likely to continue rising faster than GDP in the next few years throughout the region, picking up also in countries where so far it has been stalled. Although this growth should be regarded as a structural and positive development, policymakers will have to evaluate carefully its implications for macroeconomic developments and financial stability.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/213.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: 17 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/213

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Keywords: Credit expansion ; Albania ; Bosnia and Herzegovina ; Bulgaria ; Croatia ; Czech Republic ; Estonia ; Hungary ; Latvia ; Lithuania ; Macedonia; FYR ; Poland ; Romania ; Serbia and Montenegro ; Private sector ; Transition economies ; Privatization ; Liquidity ; Capital controls ; Credit ceilings ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  7. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  8. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Financial Reform: What Shakes It? What Shapes It?," IMF Working Papers 03/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel Ottens & Edwin Lambregts & Steven Poelhekke, 2005. "Credit Booms in Emerging Market Economies: A Recipe for Banking Crises?," DNB Working Papers 046, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2006. "Microeconomic determinants of acquisitions of Eastern European banks by Western European banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/414, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  3. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe - new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Emilio Sacerdoti, 2005. "Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Issues and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 05/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Henriksson , Marketta, 2005. "Productivity differentials and external balance in ERM II," Research Discussion Papers 7/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jerome Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Daria Zakharova, 2008. "One-Size-Fits-One: Tailor-Made Fiscal Responses to Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 08/269, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Orrego, Fabrizio, 2009. "Una nota sobre el crecimiento del crédito al sector privado en el Perú," Working Papers 2009-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alexander F. Tieman & Daniel C. L. Hardy, 2008. "Innovation in Banking and Excessive Loan Growth," IMF Working Papers 08/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Deniz Igan & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2008. "Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe," IMF Working Papers 08/219, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marketta Henriksson, 2005. "Productivity differentials and external balance in ERM II," International Finance 0508013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Martin ČIHÁK & Jaroslav HEŘMÁNEK & Michal HLAVÁČEK, 2007. "New Approaches to Stress Testing the Czech Banking Sector (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 41-59, March. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrea M. Maechler & Srobona Mitra & DeLisle Worrell, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 07/248, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Zsófia Ãrvai, 2005. "Capital Account Liberalization, Capital Flow Patterns, and Policy Responses in the EU's New Member States," IMF Working Papers 05/213, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 06/26, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Marcel Tirpák & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2008. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," IMF Working Papers 08/173, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Designing Stress Tests for the Czech Banking System," Research and Policy Notes 2004/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  21. Barry Eichengreen & Katharina Steiner, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," NBER Working Papers 14438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Olga Arratibel & Reiner Martin & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU member states - which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/215, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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