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Modeling Inflation in Georgia

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  • Wojciech Maliszewski
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    Abstract

    The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16925
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/212.

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    Length: 23
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/212

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    Related research

    Keywords: Transition economies; Economic models; inflation; monetary policy; money demand; foreign exchange; real money; aggregate demand; price level; nominal variables; inflation equation; national bank; foreign currency; relative prices; money market; money balances; price stability; real money supply; money growth; money supply; demand for money; real variables; monetary fund; monetary control; monetary transmission; inflation rates; money markets; central bank; official reserves; post-crisis period; reserve requirements; monetary authorities;

    References

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    1. Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Jian-Ye Wang, 1999. "The Georgian Hyperinflation and Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 99/65, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639, October.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    5. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Giorgi Bakradze & Andreas Billmeier, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Georgia," IMF Working Papers 07/193, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 05/236, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.

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